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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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South Korea will have a new president two months from now. A conservative and former businessman Lee Myung-bak, the first businessman to be elected as president of South Korea, promises to make important changes in the macroeconomic policy of the country. Big public projects will again try to reinvigorate the economy, which is by the way one of the leading in Asia and among the best performing advanced economies in the world. Trying to emulate to some degree the economic policy that was partially responsible for the financial crisis in 1997, the next government risks repeating the same mistakes and eventually risks pushing the country again into the swirl of overexposed debtors. This time, however, it's the 'China' card that will be used as insurance policy against economic disasters. Putting too much on one card is actually making this disaster more likely.

South Korean modern history of economic 'miracles' has actually very few miracles, if any. Starting at the early 1960s as predominantly agrarian country with strong state-centralization tradition inherited from the Japanese colonial period, South Korea adopts economic model of industrialization based on strong exports, relatively cheap labor, maximum concentration of business conglomerates, and fusion of interests between the business management and the political elite. In a time when most developing countries adopt alternative model of industrialization through import-substitution, South Korea enjoys good 'weather' in exporting even more and more toward the United States, Europe, and later toward Japan.

The 'miracle' lasts up to the early 1990s when an economic recession in the three major markets puts the South Korean political leadership before a hard dilemma: to cool down the economy until the foreign markets take up, or not to cool down the economy by increasing the internal demand for goods that went abroad. The government opts for the second option; South Korea maintains artificially the good economic performance at the price of financial overexposure of its leading industrial groups. By the time when America and Europe are again on the field to import massively from South Korea, its finances are in really bad shape; when the entire region is engulfed by the crises in 1997, South Korea is engulfed too.

What follows looks like a lesson on neo-liberalism and good economic governance from economics textbooks. The public finances are put under control; the bad performing conglomerates are sold or closed or restructured; the unemployment goes up, the incomes fall down; the exports rise, and after some painful years, the economy is again in good shape. The growth rates, however, aren't the same as during the economic boom era. The current economic structure makes South Korea especially vulnerable with the rise of the new industrial powers in the region.

The message of the president-elect is clear; more money will be spend on warming up the domestic demand through large public projects. This time, as an insurance policy South Korea will use the 'Chinese' card. It will be the growing export to China that will guarantee that the business conglomerates won't end up like in 1997; a strong and sustainable demand from China for goods and services will make any financial mistake at home without major consequences. No more orthodox foreign financial advices, no more conservative financial policy; this time South Korea might even surpass Japan as a leading economic and technological powerhouse of East Asia. This logic, however, has one weak point. The 'Chinese' economic miracle won't last indefinitely as the huge country is moving up the scale from labor to capital-intensive economy. So South Korea will have to find another insurance policy, unless it's too late.

Country profile:

• Area: 98,480 sq km
• Population: 49 million (July 2007 est.)
• Population growth rate: 0.39% (2007 est.)
• Life expectancy at birth: 77.32 years
• GDP growth: 5% (2006 est.)
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $24,500 (2006 est.)
• Main trading partners: China, the United States, and Japan.
• Internet users: 34.12 million (2006)

(Source: CIA - World Factbook 2007)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of South Korea.