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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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It's a fact hardly noticed and even less discussed in the media rush following the unilateral proclamation of independence of Kosovo; the government of Serbia will deliver the biggest privatization program since the breakup of Yugoslavia. On the table there will be enterprises and other state assets evaluated at approximately $45 billion; a bit more than 10% will be distributed among ordinary citizens; the remaining will be sold to the higher bidder. Why is the Serbian government doing this amidst the national crisis triggered by the Kosovo independence?

At first glance, the reason is entirely domestic. The Serbs feel betrayed by their government because of the Kosovo independence and the lack of strong reaction. The riots in Belgrade prove that significant segments of population have reached the boiling point, putting at stake the governmental survival just weeks after a slim majority reelected pro-western president. According to this logic, distributing privatization assets to the general population, $1,500 per person, must calm down the situation and make it more manageable. This reasoning shouldn't be completely ruled out. It, however, doesn't explain the entire picture; at least it doesn't explain almost 90% of the picture. What should be ruled out is that distributing assets to Kosovo Albanians, they are still considered by Belgrade as Serbian citizens, may make them switch their allegiance away from the new Kosovo state and return under Serbian administration.

Serbia is a country with a shortage of capitals. It was at no point a net exporter of capitals in the past, and after many years of sanctions and economic mismanagement it's even less a source of capitals, and therefore the cash privatization program isn't intended to turn the domestic small financial sharks into industrial capitalists. On the other hand, the maintenance of many social programs depends on the economic reforms; during the years of economic sanctions and post-Yugoslav wars, the social peace was guaranteed to a degree by strong state redistribution and high inflation. In times of current peace, the Serbian elite, both political and economic, finds unnecessary continuing with many expensive social programs; the state-run assets that made possible this redistribution will, therefore, be sold out to the higher bidder. The expected money may partly finance highly reduced versions of the past social programs.

Thus far for the economic rationale, but who are the buyers that the Serbian government targets? At the end, the circle of potential groups of buyers shrinks to three, all of them with sufficient resources to complete the full program in no time: West, Russia, and the Middle East. Huge privatization like the one planned in Serbia won't be accomplished without Belgrade making the final choice about the buyers that will own the Serbian economy. For reasons rather emotional than purely economic, the investors coming from the Middle East will be eliminated from the game; Belgrade has no reason to gravitate toward the Middle East, and in fact, many Serbs still believe that at least some of their problems were made possible because of Muslim plots. This makes the choice between the West and Russia really intriguing. Serbia wants to join the European Union, so the European investors should have equal if not more favorable treatment. On the other hand, Serbia needs Russia to recover from the series of national disasters. It seems that Belgrade has already made its mind; we'll see shortly what was the decision.

Country profile of Serbia (including Kosovo):

• Area: 88,361 sq km
• Population: 10.1 million (July 2007 est.)
• Ethnic groups: Serb, Albanian, and Hungarian.
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $7,700 (2007 est.)
• Population below poverty line: 30% (1999 est.)
• Unemployment rate: 30% (approximately 50% in Kosovo).
• Main trading partners: Italy, Germany, Austria, and other EU countries.
• Internet users: 1.4 million (2006).

(Source: CIA - World Factbook 2008)

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