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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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Up until the last spring everything for Russia looked really bad. The internal opposition to Kremlin was enthusiastic about remaking the Ukrainian "Orange Revolution". There were one-two more former Soviet dissident republics that challenged the leading role of Russia on the post-Soviet space. The international prestige was low due to the political interference in Ukrainian electoral affairs. The high oil and gas prices were no enough to compensate for the lost positions abroad.

But then everything changed. The economic factor, or as Marx would say, the economic "base" began influencing both the domestic and the international posture of the Kremlin's tenants, or we should say, the Kremlin's landlords. First, it was the turn of the outside critics to be silenced. If you need milk and there is only one milk-shop in the town left, it isn't polite to criticize its owner of the way he drives his car, as far as he doesn't drive in your neighborhood. With no foreign support the domestic opposition was either tamed or silenced, using the methods that go deeply into the Russian-Soviet-Russian history.

The West was enthusiastic about welcoming the "Orange Revolution" but when the bill came out, the choir of supporters lost momentum. Ukraine was ready to change sponsor, but the West didn't mean this. Some call it miscommunication. Kiev may soon find itself with no alternative of going back to the old communal house. The master is well known, and besides, the gas and oil are cheaper. Other countries may follow the Ukrainian example or be forced to follow it. The West European core doesn't notice this trend. Russia going back into Europe doesn't seem bothering either Berlin or Paris. Perhaps the oil and gas are more important given that Moscow behaves itself and keeps its expansion within certain limits. It seems that Ukraine falls within these limits, but what about the Baltic republics or the Balkans?

Until we wee the answer unfolding before our eyes as it did several times during the last 300 years, the expensive oil and gas have pumped up the real estate prices in Russia, and especially in Moscow, where the political and economic elite is concentrated in high numbers. Even if we calculate the current prices regarding the historic devaluation of the U.S. dollar during the last 7-8 years, it seems that the prices in Moscow have already gone above their highest pre 1998 levels. Exactly two years ago we established a clear correlation between the real estate prices in Moscow and the oil market fluctuations. Today, two years later, the average residential prices are approximately double what they were in 2003, now reaching $2,100-$2,200 per sq.meter. Unlike 1995-1996, this time nobody cares that the main source of inflation will dry up. Unless the world falls into a deep economic crisis and suddenly stops buying oil, the Russian oil Eldorado will go on without hindrance.

The problem is that the oil is too expensive even now and it's just a matter of time before some national economy collapses under its weight.

Russia profile:

• Area: 17,075,200 sq km.
• Population: 143,420,309 (July 2005 est.).
• Population growth rate: -0.37% (2005 est.).
• Net migration rate: 1.03 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2005 est.).
• Life expectancy at birth: 67.1 years.
• Total fertility rate: 1.27 children born/woman (2005 est.).
• GDP per capita: purchasing power parity of $9,800 (2004 est.).
• Main trading partners: EU countries, Ukraine, Japan.
• Internet users: 6 million (2002).

(Source: CIA - The World Factbook 2005)

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