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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Forecast: Real estate market in Russia in 2001
During the 90s the absolute power of the President (better to be called a power of czar) was balanced only by... the almost permanent illness of Boris Yeltzine, who couldn't use it fully. The things since have changed and now the new President has plenty of opportunities to prove its unlimited power (by imposing martial law whenever he likes and by shaking the whole system of legal institutions). To make a forecast in such a country is a tricky business. The real estate market there is not a result of the relationship between the supply and the demand, but mainly is an outcome of the government policy. So we have not only to know the economic numbers but also to understand the psychology of the supreme leader. His political will can either create the conditions to foreign capital to flow inside the country or can confiscate the capitals still remaining in it. Depending on its choice the real estate market could boom, but also could collapse or may remain at its present levels. The last could be made easily by decree, obliging landlords not to increase the rents. Well, let's see what the Russian President Vladimir Putin has in his mind for this year. The first task for him will be to immunize his power against internal critics, i.e. to destroy the institutions of free speech in the country. This will be made via destruction of economic basis of independent media. When you don't have enough money to do your job you sooner or later will start depending on state funds or your business will be wrecked. This task seems very easy compared to the next one - stop paying on foreign obligations and at the same time attract as more as possible foreign investments. The goal for Putin is to have at his disposal as much as possible money for modernizing the Russian military industry*. The third task is to divert the foreign capitals from sensitive areas such as the military complex and the gas and oil industry without disturbing the capital flow itself**. These tasks are very complex because the Russian President can't simply order western investors "Come in and put you money at my disposal!". The investors are people with their own interests (which of course not include to help Moscow make weapons aimed at western world). Thus the market reforms (or what is called in Russia to be market reforms) aim not to make Russians free and happier but rather to make the state stronger militarily. The freedom in early 90s was a by-product of the Soviet Union collapse, a result from the lack of strong government rather than from any comprehensive policy. People began to speak because there was nobody to stop them. But now there is someone and that is the difference. The complexity of tasks that stands in front of President Putin will force him in 2001 not to make any sudden move in a matter of economic policy or at least not to do it before he has secured his back by destroying the independent media in Russia. Another hurdle for accomplishing his tasks is the opposition among the western governments to the Russian calls of restructuring its obligations. In respect to the western governments Putin will most probably use the old Roman tactic of "divide et empera"***, i.e. to push western countries one against the others in order to gain maximum space for moving. Thus the most probable forecast for 2001 in Russia is a mixture of economic stagnation with big dose of political uncertainty. The problems with Western investors (more correctly with the lack of them) will remain basically unresolved this year. The positive economic effects of higher oil prices will vanish soon and the principal real estate market in Moscow will move up by no more than 5 percent in dollar terms. * - The primary goal of Perestroika ("reconstruction") in the 80s was to attract the western capitals and not to give freedom to the population of the Soviet Union. ** - These tasks together so far have been successfully implemented in China, which is considered as a model country for many Russians nowadays. *** - To divide and to rule over.
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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Russia.
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