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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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24 June 2004

Romania: Market Frenzy and Political Uncertainty

© 2004, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Describing Romania's situation in 2004, the future analysts would point out at the coexistence between the real estate market frenzy and the political uncertainty that reigned over this country. On the real estate market we have situation when some properties change hands every 2-3 months, a signal that quick investment returns are the only motivation behind many buyers. In a sense the lack of strong governmental authority makes easier this frenzy, making more difficult cooling down the market. Political uncertainties in Romania have at least two dimensions, foreign and domestic. It's still unclear whether the European Union will open its doors for the country by 2007 or it will opt for another year or years. In the internal policy it seems that political pendulum is moving again away from the former communists that ruled the country for 11 out of 15 years since 1989.

The real estate market in Romania experienced strange phenomena. During most of 1990's it went up and down on limited scales, remaining far below the Central Europe price levels. Last year we reported about strong market awakening*. The situation now can be described as frenetic, with some properties around the major urban centers changing owners every 2-3 months. One of the central Romanian newspapers asked the sound question is it normal for a country like Romania to ask for higher prices on land around Bucharest than the prices on land around Paris? Like in neighboring Bulgaria cheaper bank loans and highly optimistic market expectations make people take credits that can't be served in long run. Unlike Bulgaria when the government seems in change trying at least on words to cool down the credit expansion, Romania seems falling prey to economic overheating.

Romania entered NATO in May 2004 and hopes to join the European Union by January 2007 together with Bulgaria, which already ended up the accession talks. Brussels also wants to see Romania among its member states by 2007, but there are signs that this membership may be delayed until 2008 and maybe even beyond that date. Strictly speaking, with 7 negotiation chapters still on the table, Romania has lost its bid to join EU by 2007. To say this openly would mean to produce political crisis in Bucharest, which will further delay the negotiations. On the other hand, there are still hopes that Brussels can waive the remaining 7 chapters and accept Romania "as it is". This will save EU millions on accepting new members one by one instead of group. There is also scenario that Romania and/or Bulgaria are joining EU but don't participate in decision-making until all Union conditions are met.

In order to satisfy the conditions of its new EU partners, Romania has already passed a law severely restricting the adoption of Romanian children by foreigners. This law that will take effect 6 months from now will give priority to Romanian couples and will allow international adoptions only as last resort.

Romanian municipal elections from June 2004 showed that political pendulum is moving away from the former communists and extreme nationalists toward the more moderate parties. There are little expectations that such political arrangement won't be reproduced during the fall parliament and president elections. A radical change in the political cockpit will hold the EU negotiations. If the worst real estate market scenario occurs and the market frenzy fades, the new government will be held responsible for the mistakes of its predecessors.

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Romania country profile:
  • Area: 237,500 sq km
  • Population: 22.3 million (July 2004 est.)
  • Population growth rate: -0.11% (2004 est.)
  • Life expectancy at birth: 71.12 years
  • Ethnic groups: Romanian 89.5%, Hungarian 6.6%, Roma 2.5%
  • GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $6,900 (2003 est.)
  • Main trading partners: Italy, Germany, France, Russia.
  • Internet users: 1.8 million (2002)
(Source: CIA - The World Factbook 2004)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Romania.

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