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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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12 August 2005

Romania: Retreat on all fronts

© 2005, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

This year will be more troublesome for Romania than its government and citizens could have predicted only some months ago. Its European bid's timing is more insecure than it was when the current government took office in 2004. The political stability is also put under a question mark. The real estate market is looking for clues about the macro-economic trends ahead. The foreign investors take wait-and-see approach. Unlike most of the 1990s, this time the fate of Romania isn't predominantly in the hands of its citizens and rulers.

Political stability is of paramount importance for any country like Romania that goes through deep economic and social reforms. That's why the decision in early July of the Prime Minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu to resign was unequivocally described by Brussels as saying goodbye to the country's EU-2007 membership plans. Eventually the Prime Minister decided to stay in office. The main reason for his earlier stand was that the political opposition and the judiciary system blocked the reforms needed to meet some EU criteria for membership. These obstacles tough still remain unchanged, meaning that the Prime Minister has either bluffed in his earlier speeches or he has given up the 2007 deadline for EU membership.

Looking at the government, that took office in November 2004, already being unable to decide which policy to stick to, the markets and the international investors take prudent approach to the country as a whole. The real estate markets that boomed so far since early 2000 are now in equilibrium. There are even reports of prices dropping. The general impression is that by the end of this year something will happen that will shed more light on the political situation in Romania. What this "thing" may be: snap parliament election, mass judges departures, and some political deal with new government coalition including the left opposition? Or perhaps the policy-makers will just look for favorable EU signals.

The political moment for Romania is as never before unfavorable. The problem is that its EU bid is less than ever dependent on its own policies and more than any time in the past dependent on sudden political shifts in West European core countries. In the good old times Romania claimed it was accomplishing its European responsibilities and Brussels seemed believing it. That could have been true before the French and Holland "no" to the European constitution. Now the ball is more in the candidates' field to prove they are ready for membership; not in the Brussels field to prove they're not.

Brussels has already begun sending worrisome letter to both Bucharest and Sofia asking for more efforts before the final decision is made whether they will join the union in 2007 or in 2008. Nobody puts under question mark the very fact of European enlargement to these two countries. At the same time it seems Brussels is ready to postpone their integration for one year in order to preserve the European consensus for some important common missions in the future. What is more worrisome for Romania and Bulgaria is that they will have less European funding once they get into the union. That may postpone indefinitely their prime mission of catching up with the more advanced European core.

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Romania.

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