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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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28 May 2005

Romania and Bulgaria: The final pre-EU stretch

© 2005, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Romania and Bulgaria have been given their tickets to EU. They both hope to be able to join the Union in January 2007 as they have done with NATO becoming its members in 2004. With less luck the EU entry may be postponed until January 2008 but such unpleasant surprise isn't likely to happen. In a meantime the economies of both countries are booming far above the European average, attracting western capitals and businesspersons. The real estate markets in both countries, above all in some urban and coastal areas are booming too, due to increased domestic and foreign demand. There are risks for those looking for uninterrupted property appreciations, but for those ready to look for long-term returns, it seems that both countries have finally got their "European" train.

Romania

With residential properties sold for $1,200 per sq.meter and more in some areas of the capital city of Bucharest and prices jumping enormously since early 2000s, Romania looks much better than during the 1990s. The demographic hemorrhage isn't as acute as in its southern and eastern neighbors. The economy is doing remarkably well although the current GDP per capita level is still below 30% of the EU-15 average* or approximately 20% of the U.S. average. There are good chances that this figures may reach 40% of EU-15 in 5 years.

On the flip side the country remains as corrupt as it was in the past years. There is no progress regarding the social exclusions of different sorts. Especially difficult problems for smaller foreign investors may come from the lack of clear titles to some properties that went through nationalization and privatization during the second half of 20th century. The former owners still claim more than 100,000 houses and apartments. Many of these properties are located in the central historical zones making them preferable choice for some foreigners.

Bulgaria

The residential prices in Bulgaria fall in the same range as those in Romania. An especially strong demand is seen in the central zones of the capital city Sofia and some other major cities as well as along the Black Sea coast, where the sq.meter may be traded for $1,200 and more. The demographic hemorrhage is acute, the country officially losing more than 15% of its population since 1989. The economic migration is partly responsible for this depopulation. Its good side is that Bulgaria receives almost $2 billion per year from migrants' remittances that contribute to the market development.

Bulgaria like Romania has less than 30% of the EU-15 GDP per capita. Its ambitions are to make 40% in less than 10 years. Partly this program of accelerated catching-up will be financed by the EU, which makes it problematic given the lack of enthusiasm by some West European donors to keep giving money.

Our last year warning to the investors is still holding. To sum it up, there are some financial traps that can lead to mid-term fall of prices and investment loses. These traps will begin affecting the market in this or the following year and the last one as far as we can predict will occur in 2009 when the national currency is expected to be replaced by the Euro. Later on the market dynamics will depend on the macroeconomic decisions and environment that will enfold by that time.

* - EU-15 stands for the European Union before 2004.

Romania & Bulgaria profiles:
  • Area: 237,500; 110,910 sq km
  • Population: 22.3 million; 7.4 (July 2005 est.)
  • Population growth rate: -0.12%; -0.89% (2005 est.)
  • Life expectancy at birth: 71.35; 72.03 years
  • GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $7,700; $8,200 (2004 est.)
  • GDP real growth rate: 8.1%; 5.3% (2004 est.)
  • Population below poverty line: 28.9%; 13.4% (2002)
  • Internet users: 4 million (2003); 630,000 (2002)
(Source: CIA - The World Factbook 2005)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Romania and Bulgaria.

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