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Archived Articles
Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Canada: Fewer political risks, more investment opportunitiesIn the previous years, I've been cautious about advising for investments on a massive scale in the Canadian francophone province of Quebec. The reason for this was simple. The political risks, mainly linked to the strong support for territorial independence from Canada, were high. In addition to that, the economic risks of having a country in North America with business-unfriendly government, as a norm, were also very high. The market of Quebec, not a minor detail, isn't of such a scale as to warrant such high risks; Quebec is not China or Russia after all. There is, however, a new development that may reduce significantly these risks. The details follow.
A little historySince the early 1970s, only one major issue, the independence from Canada, dominated the Quebec political life. As a first or a second political force, the nationalist Quebecois Party called referenda twice on that issue, both defeated by the majority, the second time by a very thin margin. If again in power, this party would have no hesitations for calling for another referendum. The other issues, and in Quebec there are many, were just echoes of this principal question. The French language laws, the massive exodus of predominantly Anglophone businesspersons, even the issues usually as far from politics as the provincial childcare tax credits, they all were marked by the tentative outcomes of this major debate.Since early 1960s, if official statistics can be trusted, Quebec lost to other Canadian provinces approximately 620,000 people. Some major banks and other financial and industrial corporations, traditionally located in this province, moved their HQs from Montreal in Quebec to Toronto in Ontario some 400 mi west. For a province of 7.5 million people that hasn't experienced wars or natural disasters during the same period, this bleeding was enormous. With fewer people, low birth rates, and ever-growing social expenditures, Quebec population pays now the highest total taxes in North America. Massive immigration can do little to change this situation. Up to a half of all officially admitted immigrants either don't land in Quebec, or soon return to their homelands, or move to other Canadian provinces, where their skills are recognized.
An event that can change the futureThis week marks an earthquake even in Quebec life. The nationalist Quebecois Party, a heterodox mixture representing nationalist and left wing intellectuals, union members, urban poor, feminist and sexual minority groups, was relegated to third position in the provincial election. To understand this change, just imagine that either Ross Perot or Ralph Nader finish second in presidential election after taking a third of the states; or imagine that in election for the Congress a third and little known party takes a third of all contested seats. This was exactly what happened in Quebec. A small party, that has never managed to do a lot of noise, became the official opposition; and the radical nationalists scored their worst defeat since the early 1970s.Now the main two parties in Quebec are both business-friendly and Canada-friendly; the traditional Liberal party of Quebec, still in power, is positioned around the political center; the relatively newcomer, the Democratic Action of Quebec, is positioned right of the center, defending an agenda focused on the francophone middle-class and the family values. If this new political configuration holds steady, and these two parties form the backbone of the party system, the political and economic risks for investors will diminish significantly. For there will be a large business-friendly political consensus, bringing in fresh capitals. Taxes may fall down, and people may stop fleeing the province. Quebec will hardly regain its lost economic positions within Canada, but at least it will stop losing more ground, and people.
-------------------- See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Canada, and the Canadian province of Quebec.
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