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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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French suburbs are burning? Who's next?Burning suburbs and suburbs defined as ethnic ghettos; these are notions incomprehensible for many ordinary people around the world. Suburbs are usually correlated for many with middle and upper middle class cozy bungalows, regularly cut lawns, neighbors helping neighbors, and nice looking school busses. To imagine this peace and quiet life turning into nightmare is just inconceivable. Even more inconceivable is that current social tensions in France may be followed by other places around Europe, if not tomorrow then in not so distant future. This is also an important warning to every real estate investor looking at the European market.
How suburbs turned into ghettos?Paris for centuries has been indisputably political, economic and cultural center of France. For centuries ruling elite has had problems living in close proximity to lower classes. There were different methods to break this "unnatural" coexistence. In late 17th c. king Louis XIV decided to move away from Paris and established its principle residence in Versailles. Thus he left hundreds of thousands in a city frequently lacking basic food and sanitation. A century years later this city produced one of most spectacular social revolutions in human history. Living away was not enough for king Louis XVI to save his head.Revolutionary and post-revolutionary political elite lived in Paris, but frequent social disturbances made its life uneasy. In mid-19th c. the state decided to deal with the "coexistence" problem by reorganizing the city, demolishing whole residential areas and building large boulevards. This idea paid off and the next take of barricade revolution in 1871 was easily put down using cavalry and artillery. Low classes were put down, but they remained living within the city, endangering social order. Paris was ideological center for anarcho-syndicalism, prophesying sudden break with capitalism by a strike paralyzing communication and transportation systems. In mid-20th c. elite finally thought it have found magic solution for tackling the social issues. It started moving big industries away from old city perimeter. Working class followed the move. Hundreds of thousands HLMs (high-rise housings for low-income households) were built between 1960s and 1980s. As middle class and white collars moved into Paris, blue collars moved out. Thus a new urban phenomenon was born, working class suburbs. Since early 1960s HLMs' tenants have changed. The share of non-immigrant majority has dwindled in favor of recent waves of immigrants and their children. The share of working people has dwindled in favor of constantly unemployed persons. The share of illegal immigrants, statistics are hard to produce on this, seems also on the rise. Industries that attracted residents between 1960s and 1980s are bleeding. Paris downtown requires different workforce. HLMs have turned from French working class suburbs into ethnic ghettos. What should be expected?There may be different ways of tackling the social problem of French HLMs, but none of them seems providing miracle solution, at least not in short run. Government may impose a sort of martial law within rebellious areas, and running closer to presidential election in 2007 it seems this measure will have enough popular support. What should be done next beyond big police intervention seems much more interesting. French society may decide to abandon its social model, which in fact keeps good jobs for racial majority and leaves racial minorities on the bottom, educational background being equal. This may be a difficult pill to digest, especially in times of economic stagnation, but in long run it may produce a kind of economic system we see across the English Channel or across the Atlantic Ocean. I personally don't give too much credit to this solution. France is too heavily stuck within its rejection of anything resembling British or American way of life. They will have to sacrifice too much in order to produce good results that are highly uncertain.Second option will be to legitimize segregation. Those who are on the bottom will remain there and they will know why, because they look different. This won't be apartheid like in South Africa before 1994. There will be some opportunities for vertical social and economic mobility. There may even be some affirmative action programs. The state will try to buy favors of ethnic elites. Ethnic majority will have peace and tranquility; in exchange local ethnic and religious elites will be given control over their flocks. I personally don't buy this solution either. France is stuck into its republican past. It cannot allow separate loyalties even at the price of social peace. Third solution, which I find most promising, will integrate minorities into larger French social model without going too far in terms of jobs competition and vertical promotion. Minorities won't be given equal access and equal chances of success; instead they will have equality in results. Majority will pay additional taxes in order to produce more egalitarian society without threatening existing jobs by increasing state's power of redistribution. Those who are legal residents and have been refused equal chances because of their ethnicity would be given equal financial rewards as if they were contributing to social welfare. Sound like socialism, but French model is all about socialism.
Who's next?This historic and social analysis would have been too irrelevant for a real estate site if current events had no generalizing effect on other countries that might experience similar problems in not so distant future. Millions of residential units in similar high-rise suburbs exist in many European countries, both Western and Eastern. In many cities in former communist states more than 50% of local population lives in such suburbs. Social differentiation sooner or later will make them unacceptable for middle class that will move into modern suburbs or modern downtown condominiums.With rapid deindustrializaion that Eastern Europe experiences since 1989 those who remain in these gray ghettos will be impoverished locals and incoming immigrants, some of them illegal. In fact many units in such residential buildings are considered as very attractive investments for buyers coming from West. In terms of short-term capital returns this may be case in some places; it's another story whether such investment will be good in a long run. All post-communist countries lag far behind France in both economic development and social openness. This means that explosive mixture of economic and racial exclusion will develop throughout the region, and if France isn't immune to such problems, nobody is. This means that Paris ethnic suburb riots may be only a prequel of what is going to happen elsewhere.
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