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Archived Articles
Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Market in Paris: Higher and higherThe real estate market in Paris keeps reaching new heights. Areas so far spared by the price boom are quickly catching up with more expensive neighborhoods. It seems, although these impressions always turn wrong, that there isn't end to current real estate boom. Several factors, temporary and sustainable, domestic and foreign alike, explain why we witness such a phenomenon. Only if this combination of factors sticks together we can witness more years of boom ahead. A lack of one or two of them may be critical in turning the market down.
Investment opportunitiesThe beginning of the recent real estate boom in Paris coincided with major problems on stock exchange following problems with "new economy" enterprises. This was however not a coincidence. Investors turned sympathetic eyes toward real estate market that at the same time became much more lucrative given falling interest rates. No major alternative opportunities and low interest rates, these were just two factors that partly explain recent boom. These are mid-term factors, they may not change overnight, but nevertheless we shouldn't take them for granted.
Labor force mobilityParis has developed throughout last 150 years as point of attraction for millions coming from rural communities. Unemployment in Paris today seems less significant than in many regions, hit harder by bad economic environment in the last 4-5 years. One possible solution for thousands of unemployed is to go to Paris and many actually do it. This factor has less temporary effects on the real estate market. State intervention in economy will become less and less visible in the years to come and Europeanized and globalized economy will benefit largely those living in major urban areas. Some people after retirement may decide to move away from Paris, but people in their most productive age will certainly move in opposite direction.
"Americans are back"Very good news for sellers and for real estate agents is that Americans that deserted France and Paris, in particular, after 9/11 and kept away during the "war of words" during Gulf War II, are now back. Their presence makes a difference since early 2004. Many of buyers are only investors, but some have also moved to Paris. Citizens from other EU countries, especially from Germany and Britain, also express interest to invest. This factor and its evolution is very hard to predict because it implies substantial knowledge not only of the French market and its potential for capital returns but also comparative knowledge of other markets where investors are coming from. To make the picture more interesting, this factor also depends somehow on political relation between countries. For good or bad effects of this factor may be short lived.
"Arabs are still here"Last but not least, investors from several Arab countries are present in Paris and their number is growing. Two most recent waves added to already large and rich Arab community, not to be mistaken with millions of poor Arabs escaping poverty. One wave of investors came from countries like the U.S. and UK, fearing bad treatment after 9/11. Another wave of investors came from several Arab countries fearing regime change. The Arab factor seems promising and least affected by temporary considerations. Arab world may be on verge of major political transformations and billions of dollars owned by local elites must be kept in safe places.
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