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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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NATO enlargement: One year later
 It has been a year since the last NATO enlargement and the beneficial consequences for those that joined the organization in terms of increased security are obvious. There are also consequences for those that have remained so far outside the organization and for those that have for a long time considered it as enemy. More countries have lined up to be considered as potential candidates. The organization that has been originally created to defend the West Europe against the USSR can still be used to tackle the problems that may arise from a possible disintegration of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Russian Federation. In April 2004 seven countries from Central and Eastern Europe were allowed to join NATO. The pact that was created years after the WWII in order to defend the West against the USSR and its satellites has continued its task of erasing the lines that kept divided the Old Continent for more than 4 decades. The democratic revolutions that swept the communism from some parts of the former Soviet Empire in 1989 found their logical conclusion with the consolidation of the democratic systems and the market economies. One of the elements of this consolidation and recognition as part of the West is the EU membership; another one is the NATO membership. NATO expansion of 2004 changed overnight the perceptions of core and periphery that dominated the western assessments for many decades. The West Central Europe (Germany, Austria and Italy) lost its "frontline" status and became part of the Western security core. The isolated Southern flank (Greece and Turkey) was reunited to the core with large land corridor through Romania and Bulgaria. For the first time a region formerly possessed by the Soviet Union was taken into the organization (Baltic states). Three more states moved up in the waiting list for membership (Croatia, Albania and Macedonia). Until NATO is ready to defend this perimeter of security there is no slightest chance for Russia to try destabilizing the Western Balkan region even in case of new or renewed conflicts in Kosovo, Bosnia, Macedonia or Montenegro. With NATO and U.S. bases moving hundreds of miles eastward many CIS countries can already make freer choice regarding their security concerns. If 10 years ago states like Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova had to choose between being closer to Russia, on the one hand, or being part of a buffer zone between Russia and the West, on the other hand, now they face different dilemma, being closer to and dependent on Russia or being part of the West. The former Soviet and later Russian propaganda machine since 1989 has poured lots of ink trying to convince East Central and Eastern Europe that going West is just a waste of time, that nobody in NATO and EU was welcoming newcomers, and that sooner or later these former satellites would understand their historic mistakes and turn to Moscow for security and for cheap oil and gas. Today, 16 years later, it's obvious that even if that has been true in 1989, the nations in Eastern Europe have succeeded to change the Western plans. The same nations that made the Soviet Union renouncing its empire peacefully made also the West perceiving Central and Easter Europe as part of its own identity. In this sense the Russian propaganda proved to be wrong, and those who tried to escape its grip proved to be right from the beginning. The domino effect that these enlargements have (NATO and EU) cannot be overestimated for those that since 1991 made the wrong choice of staying closer to Russia, trading off their long-term prosperity and security for some short-term oil and gas gifts. Basically this group includes every CIS country except the three Baltic states that turned their backs to Russia at the earliest possible moment. Such choice may be understood only within the context of the western indecision following the collapse of the communism in 1989-1991. 15 years ago there was no certainty whether or not the NATO will have enough courage to guarantee the security for those nations that were so many times betrayed by the West since Munich '38. No government within the CIS wanted to follow the examples of Hungary '56 and Czechoslovakia '68. The war in Chechnya reminded everyone that Moscow's tolerance isn't limitless. With NATO at the borders of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova, with its bases located in proximity to the main Russian bases in Black Sea and elsewhere Moscow cannot do in Ukraine what it has been accustomed to do in the past and for sure it cannot even imagine repeating Chechnya in these republics without military confrontation with NATO. With the Baltic states and Poland within NATO, it is hardly imaginable that Russia will force military solution even in Kaliningrad region (former Eastern Prussia) if the local Russian population decided to seek more autonomy from the federal center. The CIS is doomed and as the Russian president acknowledged recently, it was from the very beginning just a form of civilized divorce between the former Soviet republics. It's in a process of a slow disintegration. Some former Soviet republics are changing their governments by revolutionary means and seek western security protection. We are approaching a next stage of the post-communist implosion where the main victim will be Russia and its territorial integrity. Given its enormous nuclear capacity this implosion may pose enormous threat to the world. Only a strong net of security around Russia created by NATO may limit the negative consequences of this implosion. At the time when Russia implodes the former buffer countries between it and the West should have already been consolidated within NATO structures.
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