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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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22 October 2005

Montenegro: Prospects for a new state in Europe

© 2005, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Montenegro may organize a referendum as early as February 2006 on the hot issue of its independence from its federation with Serbia. The so-called international community, mainly the European Union, is strongly opposing this move, although some states within the Union are sympathetic to it. The irony is that the means Brussels employs to keep the federation together may lead to precipitation of the independence. We may expect in less than a year to see another tiny state emerging on the political map of Europe.

Montenegro may organize a referendum on its independence, announced its prime minister Milo Djukanovic. According to recent polls the majority may opt for independence. However there is still a strong minority that opposes the move. The EU, that has tried to act as an arbiter in many interethnic conflicts emerging from the former Yugoslavia, in this particular case is hoping to keep the federation Serbia and Montenegro intact. Brussels hopes that this may preserve the peace in the Western Balkans.

The EU has one strong tool to influence the political players in this region and this is the promise for membership. Both Serbia and Montenegro hope to become EU members someday. A new war, or even a new tension between them may postpone these plans with years. At this moment Brussels isn't in the mood to make large promises to anyone, so the decision to start Stabilization and Association Agreement talks should be considered as an exceptional favor instead of routine operation.

This agreement may be signed as early as the end of 2006. Once signed it will open the bureaucratic doors for starting talks leading to full membership. It should be clear that the present talks may not be successful, and that in case of agreement it may not lead automatically to accession talks. But if all these prerequisites are fulfilled, the new kind of talks with Serbia and Montenegro will increase the costs for Montenegro for separation.

We may witness situation similar to Cyprus, where the talks were opened in hope to bring the Turkish community closer to the Union. At the end only the Greek administered Cyprus joined the EU. Montenegro won't accept the idea of starting talks with the EU that may at the end benefit only Serbia and leave Montenegro outside the club. That's why they have to hurry up and decide on their independence before the current talks end. They may expect then to have as an independent country separate talks for EU membership. Without EU proposing the current talks with the federation, Montenegro could possibly postpone the decision to hold a referendum. With the prospect of membership talks looming on the horizon, the issue to hold a referendum becomes a top priority for Montenegro.

Nobody really knows how Belgrade may react to such a move toward independence from its last ally. Nobody knows what kind of chain reaction this may produce either within the Serbian political elite or outside the federation where so many ethnic problems still wait to be solved. The difference now with the mid-1990s and the end of 1990s is that the West is less prepared to intervene decisively in the Balkans. There is neither a political will, nor resources, nor the public opinion in the West will consider such an intervention to be a priority. Since Milosevic has been driven out of office 5 years ago the West had plenty of time to solve the remaining ethnic problems in the former Yugoslavia. Instead the precious time was wasted.

Montenegro brief profile:

  • Area: 13,812 sq.km.
  • Sea coastline: 290 kilometers.
  • Population: 630,000, more than 60% living in urban centers.
  • Ethnic groups: Montenegrins (62%), Muslims (14%), Serbs (10%).
Montenegro is proclaimed by its government to be the first ecological state and to be a free economic zone.

(Source: Montenet Guide)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Montenegro.

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