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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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3 June 2008

Kazakhstan chooses Russia, the West helps

© 2008, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Strategically located between Russia and China, Kazakhstan seems recently to have opted for closer relations with Moscow at the expense of Beijing; it seems also that this ex-soviet rapprochement not only gets western blessing, the West is working to make it happen as smoothly as possible. These are new developments; last year we noticed that Kazakhstan is trying to keep certain distance with both Russia and the West. We can't explain why the political leadership in Astana made this new decision; there are certain events, however, that prove that such a decision was made, and that they go beyond some usual diplomatic smoke screen.

Kazakhstan is a country in a class of its own; the biggest country in the world without access to oceans, and at the same time one of the important oil producers and exporters. During the time of the Soviet Union, these two features didn't play any role; the country was part of a larger federation with its own access to oceans; the oil reserves financed the federal budget, which decided how much different republics should get exactly for their needs. After 1991 all this changed, and the new state, huge by territorial size but rather small by population size, had to make difficult choices in order to survive and prosper. Basically, the main choice of the country included the triangle Russia- China-West; with some possibilities to keep equidistance between them, or to play with one (or two) against the remaining player(s).

During the 1990s, Kazakhstan tried to be equidistant from both Russia and the West; since the end of the 1990s Astana included China in the triangular diplomacy. The accumulation of recent events, however, points out that Kazakhstan is finally moving toward Russia at the expense of China; this move has the blessing and the active support of the West, both the Americans and the Europeans. After several years on the negotiation board, Kazakhstan is about to ratify the customs union agreement within the Eurasian Economic Community, a code word for Russia-led Commonwealth of Independent States. This event may look quite ordinary, but it has large significance within the context of other events with cumulative importance.

The government of Kazakhstan is now beginning a policy of nationalizing certain private oil companies. In fact, the companies that will be denied access to the large oil reserves will be mainly working for the Asian market; the Chinese vector within the strategic triangle will suffer accordingly. It's the West that will have more access to the energy; Russia being itself a large oil exporter will act only as a transit point for the oil coming from Kazakhstan. China won't be able to tap into this oil for its own economic development, but the West will have to pay a certain price with political rapprochement between Astana and Moscow. The remaining western oil companies will have to pay new export duties; the Russian companies because of the customs union agreement, of course, won't pay these duties.

Last, but not least, to make no mistake as of the Chinese vector suffering most from this foreign reorientation, Kazakhstan will strengthen its border control on its long eastern border with China. This operation will be partly financed by the European Union within the frame of the European Commission Program on Border Management in Central Asia. Kazakhstan opts for closer relations with Russia, and the West is doing its part by blessing and helping this 'marriage' at the expense of China.


Kazakhstan profile:
  • Area: 2,717,300 sq km (9th in the world; biggest country with no access to oceans)
  • Population: 15.34 million (July 2008 est.)
  • Population growth rate: 0.374% (2008 est.)
  • Total fertility rate: 1.88 children born/woman (2008 est.)
  • Life expectancy at birth: 67.55 years.
  • Net migration rate: -3.31 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2008 est.)
  • GDP real growth rate: 8.7% (2007 est.)
  • GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $10,400 (2007 est.)
  • Population below poverty line: 13.8% (2007 est.)
  • Oil exports: 1 million bbl/day (2005)
  • Internet users: 1.2 million (2007)
(Sources: CIA World Factbook 2008, Reuters)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Kazakhstan.

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