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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Kazakhstan: More complicated situation than it seemsThe real, not the fictional Kazakhstan from the movies, confirmed the complete political monopoly of the president Nursultan Nazarbaev. His 'party of power' won almost 90 percent of the votes in the sham parliamentary elections and accordingly won all seats. The opposition is killed in all but name. The government is on the move to threaten some foreign investors with elimination from the lucrative domestic oil production. On the surface, it seems surprisingly similar with what's going on in neighboring Russia. Partly it's so, the more authoritarian the regime becomes, and the more plenty the state coffers are filled with oil dollars, the more independent it becomes from the West. And yet Kazakhstan is a different country, and its interests aren't identical to those of Russia. On the contrary, being a small and a rather vulnerable landlocked country in Central Asia, Kazakhstan constantly needs to balance between much stronger and influential states, such as Russia and China. The West will need to give up its humanitarian pressure in order to keep some positions in Kazakhstan, but this country will always be in search for a strong partner outside the region to check its powerful and less predictable neighbors. In Kazakhstan the ruling pro-presidential party Nur Otan won the elections. This news is comfortable with the political history of the entire region of post-Soviet Central Asia. With very few exceptions, the incumbent regimes there keep power since early 1990s. In this case, the slight difference is that the opposition is now completely out of the game, no member of any opposition party will seat in the parliament for the first time since the independence in early 1990s. From a comparative perspective, what's going on in Kazakhstan does look remarkably similar to what's occurring in some other post-Soviet republics. It may also look identical to what may occur in Russia by the end of this year, or at least to what the Kremlin would like to see going on within its borders, complete and effective elimination of any political alternative, leaving the revolution as the only possible means of regime change. There is more than that. Kazakhstan seems ready to push away some big foreign investors. Again this looks remarkably similar to what's going on in neighboring Russia. People in top decision-making positions in both countries have similar ideological and political background. Two countries also have similar structure of the export, which is predominantly energy, mainly oil and natural gas. Therefore, on the surface, Kazakhstan looks like a country that is ready to follow Russia in its moves toward a new Cold War against the West. This may indeed happen, and if this is planned in Kazakhstan, it won't take too much time for materialization. This, however, seems not to be the project of Nazarbaev and his immediate circle. Far from opting unilaterally with Russia against the West, he still tries to balance between his more powerful neighbors Russia and China; this makes the West still a potential partner, although not a political and human rights' mentor. Kazakhstan is a young country, meaning a country without strong sense of national identity, not to be confused with ethnic and clan identity. Expecting in early 1990s that it may become a model of liberal democracy for the entire region was very premature. Which isn't to say that patrimonial presidentialism that we witness since quite some time was the only possible option for the country. It could have split or be divided along ethnic lines; it could have been entirely annexed by a strong neighbor, and could have been left in one piece, but constantly under influence of much stronger foreign states through their domestic clients. With such 'good' alternatives, it doesn't seem so bad after all that Kazakhstan opted for the current regime of peaceful authoritarianism. Kazakhstan may be annexed by Russia, but this scenario requires several requisites, such as leaving behind the country by the West, and also having China abstaining from Central Asia as its energy backyard. The first requisite may come if the West links tight political, economic, and humanitarian issues; current signals coming from both Washington and Brussels don't indicate that such linkage is necessary, at least not in the case of Kazakhstan. The second requisite, a sudden withdrawal of China from the region, may be possible only if China goes though a process of political turmoil, which is possible, but not likely in the months and years to come. Therefore, despite the apparent conflict between Kazakhstan and the West regarding political democratization, Kazakhstan has no interests of cutting all relations with it; otherwise it will strengthen the positions of its powerful neighbors, especially of Russia, and therefore weaken the power and maneuverability of the president Nazarbaev. Russia is a factor that won't get away from Kazakhstan any time soon, no matter what Kazakhstan does; the only way of making more acceptable this influence is by strengthening other foreign factors; China now seems to be an ideal candidate for this mission.
Kazakhstan profile: --------------------
See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Kazakhstan.
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