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Archived Articles
Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Germany: Wasted year or general pattern?Looking back to our archives I was impressed how little has changed since our last report on Germany. In fact the only thing that has really changed is the perception that the economic and the social stagnation is a temporary phenomenon that will wither away in few months. Germany seems on the right track to follow the bad example of Japan since 1990. Unlike Japan which malaise mostly affected this country and nobody else, the problems in Germany may have profound negative effects on the EU, and on its eastward enlargement. Losing 40,000 jobs per month is a trend that Germany has kept during the last 3 years. Given that the East Central Europe, which now is a part of the EU still offers much cheaper labor that can do the same work for just 30-40% of the German salaries, it's of no surprise that jobs will continue flowing eastward no matter how profitable is the business in the "Old Europe". It isn't that in Germany businesses aren't profitable, the point is that they may be even more profitable elsewhere and in a free market economy the governments can't just stop the capitals running where the bigger profits are, today in countries like Hungary, tomorrow in countries like Romania, and the day after tomorrow why not in countries like Ukraine. The EU enlargement had produced results quite opposite of what was expected in Germany. So far this country was among the main beneficiaries of any EU enlargement. The reason why this was the case was that any new member increased the market that was reserved exclusively for the German industrial exports by being cut from its main competitors from North America and Far East. Greece, Spain, Portugal, Austria, and Finland were looked upon mainly as new markets and at the second place as cheaper labor. Without being rude it will be fair to say that Greece and Portugal 20-30 years ago weren't nations with industrial traditions to be able to compete with the Germans. On the other hand, the Austrians and the Finns were rich enough to buy "Made in Germany" products. Unfortunately for the Germans this nice pattern of "enlargement=new markets=more goods exports=domestic economic growth" was cut with the acceptance of East Central Europe. On the one hand, these countries like Greece and Portugal were too poor to buy in mass the German products. On the other hand, these countries had industrial traditions going back into 19th century and enjoyed education systems that were only slightly worse if not equal to those of West Europe. The German and other European industries were put under increased pressure to export the capitals instead of goods. The new economic patterns unlike the previous is "enlargement=cheaper competitors=more goods imports=economic decline". Since 2000 the German economy is more or less stagnant and the East Central Europe has gone up by 15-25%. What can be done to break this vicious circle? The one possible solution will be to consider the problems as just temporary due to high oil prices, bad international economic environment that will eventually wither away and thus the right strategy will be to do nothing waiting for the miracle solution, falling of oil prices, and increasing exports to some traditional markets. The second option is to consider the problems as structural and fundamental, to allow the less qualified jobs to get away and to focus on the high-tech fields creating better conditions for business activity. For Germany the questions like "Why the Bill Gates phenomenon isn't possible in Europe?" are much more relevant than "How to keep the textile industry from running East?" To pour money in order to keep the inefficient textile factories running is less problematic than trying to make high-tech specialists out of these textile workers. How many persons in age of 40 and 50 are ready to study again? Isn't it much easier just to rest at home looking TV shows and get paid for this? Is it politically correct in Germany to tell someone that what s/he is doing is just useless because someone elsewhere can do it at the fraction of the costs but staying at home unemployed is a social parasitism? Until Germany decides what to do and finds the right prescription it will stagnate and lose jobs and money. Someday the Germans may even decide that the current EU enlargement wasn't such a bright idea as it was presented some years ago. They obviously can't undo it but they may not support new enlargements.
Germany country profile --------------------
See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Germany.
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