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Archived Articles
Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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The Price of the Georgian RevolutionWhen one nation storms the Bastille, hardly anyone think about who should pay the urban cleaning. When Georgians forced their president Edward Shevardnadze to step down after some days of street demonstrations, hardly anyone in the country has imagined that the difficult times are still ahead. In fact, the republic of nominally 5 million of which 1 million or more have escaped abroad, is in so gloomy economic and political situation that the chances are that it won't survive too long as independent and territorially intact entity. The political opposition, especially violent and unpredictable in Georgia, compared to some other post-Soviet republics, has finally forced the president Shevardnadze to step down. This "velvet" revolution as someone called it, was organized or perhaps even orchestrated not without external charming, the point is only as to whether the final "coup de grace" for the old leader came from Moscow or from Washington. The strategic position of the republic, on the cross road between European industry and Central Asia oil and gas, made it an easy prey to forces that by far outweighed its own capacities of resistance. Trying to balance between the big players, Georgia under Shevardnadze and his predecessors gradually was dismembered. First South Osetia de facto separated, then Abkhazia, now perhaps the turn is for Adzharia to break away. They aren't still recognized by the international community as sovereign states, but does this matter in a region, where few are ready to step inside to check these independence claims? The new regime in Tbilisi, which proudly calls itself interim government, has called for speedy integration into European Union (EU) and NATO. It's not sure which international organization will have an interest to have such country within its structure; a state with average salary of $50 per month doesn't look like a favorite runner for EU, neither country with 20,000 mostly poorly equipped and with low spirit soldiers stands as proud candidate for NATO. Except for their famous hospitality, the Georgians today can't offer anything valuable to the outside world. What is the price of the words of the new rulers in Tbilisi? How an investor could be sure of his money if these prominent "democrats" have shown so little respect for the political system of their own country? When Washington, Brussels and Moscow say they recognize the new authority in Georgia they do it following their big political and economic interests. For them this revolution is no more than a storm in a cup of water as was perhaps the bloody civil war in Lebanon. They are too far away to fear its consequences. For the people in the country any such quake has the force of major natural disaster and these and the next generations will feel its legacy, and pay the price. There are several possible scenarios what will happen in Georgia in the next years and unfortunately none of them offers some magic happy end to the present social problems. The worst scenario is of course the breaking of the country on many chunks and possible war among the different ethnic and religious groups. The best scenario will be for the big powers to establish some sort of consensus on Georgia, allowing its dismembered body to unite again or almost, and for the people to be ready to build its future. Anywhere in between lie several scenarios of more or less civil or military governments that will keep the present state of half-anarchy-half-authority with big dose of corruption among general apathy. It's up to the people of Georgia and also to many external factors to decide which way will take lead. One thing is beyond doubt, after the coup that brought down Shevardnadze Georgia isn't better off than before it. Not because the former president was good enough, but he at least had some legitimacy given to him by the office. Now that's gone. From now on everyone with a big gun could claim to represent the legitimate authority in Georgia.
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