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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Europe will be built despite the Irish "No"Ireland rejected the new European treaty that was put on referendum. This is considered as a serious defeat for the local political establishment, which is largely pro-European, as well as for the European Union, whose main "raison d'etre" is to prevent another major bloody war in the Old Continent. The good side of the story is that the European Union isn't dead. The Irish "No", exactly as the French "No" three years ago, may change the strategies aimed at further European integration. The most likely outcome, again like three years ago, will be that Europe will be built despite the popular opposition and according to its original plans, involving the politicians as much as possible and the citizens as little as necessary.
Ratification will go its wayIreland may have voted against the new European treaty that dropped the word "constitution", but the ratification process is under way in all other 26 EU countries. The Lisbon treaty itself cannot be renegotiated, at least in theory. What seems possible, and highly probable, however, is that these other EU members will make special arrangements to accommodate Ireland within the new treaty, which will be put on referendum in this country as soon as possible, possibly as early as the end of this year. Ireland is a small state within the EU, and the new political arrangements will inevitably cut its bargaining power within the common institutions; nevertheless, the small size of Ireland won't sink the new political project; the stakes are rather high for the entire continent to leave a couple of million voters to undo what's constructed painfully since the 1950s.
Why the "No" prevailedSome of those who voted against the European treaty, exactly like some of those who voted against the European constitution in France in 2005, did it hoping to see the European Union dismantled and the national sovereignties restored. They want back their national financial and credit policies, they want back their national states that they feel threatened by the omnipotent bureaucracy in Brussels. For them Europe means insecurity. The only real security is within the nation-state.The main reason why this won't happen is that there is no political class willing to perform this dismantlement. The European political establishment, i.e. the main center-right and center-left parties, with few exceptions are strongly interconnected. Ireland looks surprisingly pro-European at political level, despite the referendum's results. After half a century of European building, most European governments cannot simply imagine living on their own. For them it is "Europe or nothing". The day after their countries separate from the other EU states they will be gone politically and left and right demagogues will occupy their comfortable chairs.
Small ahead until the next "No"The European political class has no other real option than to continue its pan-continental project. Ireland will be accommodated, and the treaty will pass, perhaps with some minor changes, options for opting-in or opting-out from some new common policies. The emphasis will be put not on the codified legal procedures but on convention-kind dealings. Europe will function and move ahead not because some clauses have been written down, but because the politicians have informally agreed upon over some bottles of fine French wine in one of the best Brussels' restaurants. Europe has been made by intergovernmental agreements for more than half a century and it will remain so. Putting new treaties on referendum may be banned altogether in the future. The EU may change its motto to: "Politicians as much as possible; citizens as little as necessary".
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