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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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19 October 2008

Canada: Minority plus weak dollar

© 2008, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

What we predicted at the beginning of September 2008, a new minority government for the incumbent Conservative Party of Canada, has become a fact. Yet the country isn't the same after several weeks of financial turmoil and falling world oil prices. As a result, the Canadian dollar is much weaker than it has been for more than a year. This is good news for producers, exporters and some real estate agents, especially in the largest Central provinces and on the west coast. Not so good news, however, for the federal budget that depends on oil revenues as well as for the oil rich provinces, such as Alberta. The good news is that the new-old government will have some free hand to tackle the situation despite its minority status. Bad news is that, considering the world financial situation, it will need such free hand for longer than the opposition in the parliament would possibly tolerate.

Canadians elected new minority Conservative government. This is only a bitter victory for the Prime Minister Harper; he hoped for a majority government. At some points during the campaign it looked like he was near the goal. He did poorly in Quebec because of the perception that his government was against the local culture; he did however better than expected in the largest province of Ontario, traditionally dominated by the Liberal party. This better performance wasn't enough to compensate for Quebec. At the end, Conservatives almost reached without attaining majority; the left New Democratic Party largely increased its political share; the separatist Bloc Quebecois remained without significant change; and the opposition Liberal party paid the high price of its poor personal leadership. Resignations on the top within this formation are expected shortly. This will give the new minority government some free hand, but for no more than a year.

This is the general result as far as the high politics is concerned. But what about the economy? On the economic front actors and factors outside Canada will largely dictate the events to come. In the context of global financial crisis Canada can play but secondary and reactive role. The global oil market is plunging; this means less federal revenues from oil exports; this also means weaker Canadian dollar, largely supported recently only by the booming oil market. These trends lead to other interesting events, some of which will show up shortly, other within reasonable time.

All other factors being equal, weak Canadian dollar is good news for producers and exporters in Ontario and Quebec. For example, the automobile industry in Ontario was hit by both the diminishing demand in the United States and the stronger dollar. Now, when one of these two factors is gone, the competitiveness will go up. Weaker Canadian dollar means also weaker property prices for foreigners going to buy in Canada. This is a factor that will especially benefit the market in British Columbia, where many deals are done in cash, and the main group of foreign investors operate in U.S. dollars. It will take some time before the real estate market in Ontario and Quebec benefits too indirectly from the weaker Canadian dollar. On the contrary, the market in Alberta may suffer, largely because of the expected falling in the disposable incomes.

Canada profile:
  • Area: 9,984,670 sq km
  • Population: 33.2 million (July 2008 est.)
  • Population growth rate: 0.83% (2008 est.)
  • Life expectancy at birth: 81.16 years (2008 est.)
  • Total fertility rate: 1.57 children born/woman (2008 est.)
  • GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $38,400 (2007 est.)
  • GDP (real growth rate): 2.7% (2007 est.)
  • Main trading partners: the United States, China, Mexico, United Kingdom, and Japan.
  • Internet users: 22 million (2007)
(Source: CIA World Factbook 2008, Reuters)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Canada.

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