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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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The lumber dispute between the US and Canada that we saw on the horizon 5 months ago turned to be a true neighbor's trade war even if nobody speaks about it as a real warfare. But there is a war with casualties from both side of the border. Thousand of jobs are either cut or threatened in Canada because of the higher US import duties on Canadian lumber. On the other side hundreds of thousands American customers have to pay more for their new houses because one-third of the 55 billion board feet of softwood lumber ($6 billion worth) used in the US annually is imported from Canada.

Last time, when the smell of war only appeared in the air, we gave some advices for both sides how to avoid this conflict. The 3-point agenda included calming down the war of words; postponing the deadline of US sanctions and finding a quick compromise between Washington and Ottawa. Unfortunately none of these suggestions were accomplished and now we see the results. First, the sanctions came into effect. Second, the Canadian media from time to time open fire on the American position and third, the two governments so far didn't reach any compromise on the dispute.

A sign that the two sides can avoid the deadlock came these days from Washington. Rather it came from the mouth of Quebec Premier Bernard Landry who spoke with US ambassador to Canada Paul Celluci. According to Landry Americans were interested about quickly settling the issue especially after the World Trade Organization condemned the US duties on Canadian lumber.

The new idea that came from the South is to replace the US-Canada approach with US-provincial contacts (US-British Columbia and US-Quebec), says Landry. In other words every Canadian province will be treated by Washington according to its own practices. So if some of the Canadian provinces subsidize illegally their own industry (which is the main argument of Washington) they will take the whole responsibility for that. The idea to have separate talks with Washington has been warmly welcomed in Quebec but was met with much less enthusiasm by the British Columbia officials. The provincial Forest Minister Mike de Jong has been quoted saying: "For God's sake, let's not give the Americans the luxury of dealing with a divided Canadian position."

It isn t so hard to understand why Quebec is so keen to talk directly with Washington. Such talks will undermine the federal authority of Ottawa in the field of international trade and will increase the status of Quebec as almost a sovereign power in the same area. For the same reason the other Canadian provinces are so reluctant towards the idea of separate talks with Washington, because that means weakening the country as one voice in the international affairs (political and economic).

Nevertheless the new American initiative is a good sign that the dispute may be over by the end of this year. The next meeting between the US and Quebec trade officials is scheduled for September 20th. At stakes are billions $$$, thousands of jobs and the prices of thousands of houses. And all this just two months ahead of the US election and a year ahead of the elections in Quebec. These are enough reasons for the politicians from both sides of the border to do their job.

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