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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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28 December 2005

Canada: Prices follow people's movement

© 2005, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

After many years of housing boom Canada has experienced gradual market slow down in 2005. The prices still go up, but their leaps aren't so shocking in most places. Every province however has its own particularities and any generalization should be considered with great care. It's the part of Prairies and the West Coast that attract most per capita domestic and international migrants. The central region, which includes Ontario and Quebec, and relies on imported oil, fares well but not as well as the West does. The Atlantic Provinces and the eastern part of the Prairies that lacks big oil and gas attract traditionally less and export more migrants. They are traditionally the most affordable places to live.

The last year has seen gradual cooling of the residential real estate market in most parts of Canada. Two contradicting trends have collided. On the one hand, the central bank has raised the key interest rates, making the credit more expensive. In many parts of the country the high oil prices have taken bigger toll out of the disposable incomes making buying decision and moving to suburbs less attractive option. On the other hand, some provinces have accumulated enormous wealth on these high oil prices. The household incomes in some parts of the country have moved up much faster than the accumulated effect of the higher interest rates and the more expensive gas on the pump.

The data provided here shows how much an average household from each province will have to pay in percentage from its pretax incomes for the expenses related to owning an average detached bungalow. The higher the affordability index is, the more difficult is for the banks to approve mortgage loans. All provinces with one exception, British Columbia, have affordability indexes that allow for further increase in bank lending. With exception of the largest and the third largest urban metropolitan areas, Toronto and Vancouver, the other large urban areas also swim in calm waters.

The phenomenon we see in British Columbia and Vancouver is due to several exceptional factors. First, this province and its main city attract more per capita international immigrants than any other province, including Ontario with its main city Toronto. Second, among the immigrants-investors British Columbia is accountable for 50-60% of all members of this group moving to Canada. These new residents neither drive cabs nor deliver pizzas, usual job for many PhDs and MDs; in fact these new investors and entrepreneurs create many jobs thus making the province one of the top job creators in the country despite its relatively small population. Third, more than anywhere else in the country, the newcomers in British Columbia buy their homes in cash, therefore making the interest rates fluctuations irrelevant.

Affordability index for detached bungalows:

Canada national average: 35.5% (3rd quarter 2005, down 0.4% from 2nd quarter 2005)

Canadian provinces:

  • Alberta - 28.5% (up 0.1%)
  • Atlantic provinces (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland-Labrador, PEI) - 26.6% (down 0.3%)
  • British Columbia - 51.4% (down 0.6%)
  • Manitoba - 31.1% (up 0.6%)
  • Ontario - 34.4% (down 0.4%)
  • Quebec - 33.7% (down 0.5%)
  • Saskatchewan - 27.4% (down 0.4%)

Major Canadian cities:
  • Calgary - 33.0% (up 0.2%)
  • Montreal - 33.5% (down 0.4%)
  • Ottawa - 31.9% (down 0.1%)
  • Toronto - 41.5% (down 0.5%)
  • Vancouver - 53.6% (down 1.4%)

(Source: Royal Bank of Canada)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Canada.

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