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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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12 October 2007

Canada: Ontario election may trigger political instability

© 2007, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Ontario's Liberal party won decisive provincial election. At stake, however, isn't only the future of this largest and richest Canadian province. In fact, this election may trigger federal vote this fall. The federal liberals, a different but ideologically close party to provincial liberals, may find the current situation to represent the appropriate 'window of opportunity' for forming the next federal minority government. Such government will eventually trigger increase of separatism aspirations in Quebec and the regionalist centrifugal aspirations in the Canadian West. Without new federal election, however, Ontario (and the other central province of Quebec) will keep losing economic positions within Canada.

On provincial level, this was a decisive second in a row victory for the liberals, a party that stands for more rights for the immigrants, for larger multicultural dimension within society, for less impact of the religious values, but not necessary for less taxes or for less strict control over the public finances. Ontario is the largest and the richest province in Canada, i.e. everything that happens in Ontario is sufficiently interesting in order to understand what's going on in Canada in general. Of course, Ontario isn't the whole Canada. The West is growing fast, and together the two richest western provinces British Columbia and Alberta are almost matching the economy of Ontario, not to mention that they're surpassing the population of Quebec, another central province, just east of Ontario.

The real reason why the election in Ontario is of such interest is the effect it may exercise over the federal politics (and economics). The current federal government is a minority cabinet of conservatives, dominated by western business interests, the big oil but not only. Traditionally Ontario, and also Quebec, are both dominated by industrial interests. The current federal minority government is strong in the West, but weaker in Ontario, and rising in Quebec. On the other hand, the federal liberals are very strong in Ontario, but almost inexistent in the West, and on the verge of collapse in Quebec.

The environmental and pseudo-environmental concerns play significant role in the political struggle in Canada nowadays. By applying less strict ecological regulations, the current federal government boosts the economy in the western provinces, makes the Canadian dollar stronger, and penalizes the Ontario (and Quebec) industries. At the same time the capitals are flowing from Ontario and Quebec toward the West. If the federal liberals take power once again, the picture will be reversed. Stricter ecological norms will hurt the economy in the western provinces, the export of oil will fall, the Canadian dollar will fall, the economy in Ontario will flourish, and the capitals will start once again flowing from west to the center. On the surface, it's all about the environment; below the surface, however, it's all about money.

Up to the recent election in Ontario, the federal liberals weren't sure whether they could win a new campaign. The party leader Dion is very unpopular across the country, and the party is doing rather badly in keys provinces, such as Quebec. Now the liberals are sure that they might try their luck. The business and the union interests in Ontario are pressing for an election in order to reverse the looming crisis. Whether there will be an election in Canada this fall, probably in late November, and whether the liberals will win, will have a direct effect on the economy in many parts of the country, including on the real estate market. On the other hand, a new conservative minority government in Ottawa may cement the 'western' interests and push Ontario and Quebec into long although not deep economic depression.

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Ontario.

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