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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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There is smoke in the air that this spring there may be federal election in Canada, and possibly a provincial election in Quebec. The reasons for triggering popular consultations on both levels of jurisdictions are diverse, but the common in both of them is that minority governments must face growing discontent by united force of the opposition, becoming more active in this time of economic pre-crisis. Certain agility of those in power may postpone for a while the call for election(s). Nevertheless, the most important issues will remain and will haunt the society; and the citizens will sooner or later be called to make their decision as electorate.

In Canada, the game is for two main and two secondary players. The main players are the minority Conservative government, a large coalition formed some years ago out of the former Conservative party and from the western reformist movement; the other main player is the Liberal party, a large coalition of business and non-business groups of interest that ruled Canada for most of the last hundred years. The secondary players are the 'new democrats', social-democratic formation with strong positions among university students and some rural communities, and the party of the Quebec French-speaking separatists.

The Conservative minority rule in the last more than 2 years had balanced between different interests, always succeeding in finding some magic formula in keeping the government afloat. It seems that with the economic recession approaching, especially hardly hitting the largest Central provinces of Ontario and Quebec, the days of the federal government are counted. What makes the opposition so cautious? Nobody there would like to have another minority Conservative government. And if the polls are to be trusted, that's what many Canadians would like to have, more of the same, with no big changes. The coffers of the federal state are full, nobody would like to have them emptied, but everybody would like to have more for itself. So, the federal government has certain room for maneuvering. It would prefer, however, to have this election postponed until after the current crisis subsides.

Strongly linked with the fate of the federal government is the provincial government of Quebec, where the political constellation is right now a game of three with roughly equal weight. A minority Liberal government faces two equally important opposition groups of conservatives-autonomists and socialists-separatists. These labels should be taken with some precaution. Not all autonomists are conservative, and for sure not all separatists are socialists. The current configuration of three main parties was a result of 2007 election that strangely resembled the federal election for this province of 2006, the separatists being strong in some regions, the liberals being strong in other regions, and the autonomists being strong where the federal conservatives had made important gains.

If the federal election proves to be a triumph for the conservatives, then we may expect that the Quebec election won't be triggered by the will of the separatists; if the federal election is a triumph for the federal liberals, then the provincial autonomists would prefer to postpone the election as much as possible; if the federal election produces a tie between liberals and conservatives, it will be important to see how the provincial electoral map will look like. By the way, Quebec will have its electoral map gerrymandered this spring, bringing additional political weight to the counties with strong autonomist and liberal presence against the regions where separatists do well. This additional element works for early election triggered by the separatist part of the opposition.

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