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Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Canada: Affordability going up in 2008
The source of this study is a well-known and respected financial institution in Canada, but it's also one of the leading providers of mortgage loans in the country. In that sense, it's quite understandable that this forecast, although supported by economic data, shouldn't be taken without any reservation. Any mortgage provider has some interest to present the near future as rather better than not regarding the opportunities for its customers, real and future. After all that what the banks are for. Under some specific circumstances we acknowledge that the projections may indeed materialize, but not under all. So what are the alternative scenarios? A political factor should always be taken under scrutiny, particularly in the province of Quebec, but also generally in Canada. Both levels of government may face early elections in 2008. As in any democracy, the results won't be clear until the boxes are opened. Not all parties, on both federal and provincial level, are business-friendly, meaning that under some conditions the central bank interest rates may go in wrong direction, wrong in terms of housing affordability. The RBC report doesn't put political factors on the balance, but how many economic reports actually do? They assume that the political factor is after all either a function of economy or completely irrelevant within a perfectly equilibrated economy; to change this perception we need to change the economics textbooks first. But not all alternative scenarios are based on volatile and highly unpredictable political factors. Some are pure economics, like mortgage problems on the other side of the Canadian-American border. So far the Canadian economy has shown a remarkable resilience; in 2007 its performance was better off than for most of the other OECD nations. This resilience recently is based more and more on rising international oil prices; in some provinces where the energy isn't among the top exporting goods the economy is on the verge of recession. The housing starts are down. In this context, some improvement in the housing affordability won't necessarily be followed by rising chances of taking first housing mortgage. In this context, the banks should bet not on improved but on stable affordability.
Canada profile: -------------------- See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Canada, and the Canadian province of Quebec.
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