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Archived Articles
Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Canada: Time to apply brakes
Central provinces become more cautiousOntario and Quebec, two central provinces with almost two thirds of Canadian population living there, have become very cautious in trying to tame the real estate market that boomed for years up until recently. Higher interest rates coupled with other disturbing for the economy factors like more expensive oil and aging population have all contributed to market slowdown. In fact taking into account the CPI and annual income increases the real estate market in these two provinces for most subcategories of properties is either stagnating or slightly down. For new upturn market cycle Ontario will have to wait until the interest rates fall down to more appropriate levels. In Quebec an additional political factor under the form of sovereignty referendum may play significant role in determining the mid-term market trends.
Alberta: booming with oilAlberta presents quite different pattern of market development. Boosted by high oil prices it attracts both new people and new large investments. For a province with a relatively small population these developments are quite significant in moving the markets up. Yet the housing affordability is down in Alberta too. So far the province is far from the 'red zone'. In fact its main problem comes from lack of specialists, the current shortage being estimated at tens of thousands. No way to expect any real estate market cooling until the oil prices remain where they are currently. With big money pouring from everywhere high interest rates seem not an obstacle for those settling down. With lowering interest rates seeming imminent in a mid-term in order to help economically Ontario and Quebec, Alberta may only be expected to accelerate the pace of real estate booming.
British Columbia: booming without oilDespite the high rates, despite the expensive oil, despite so many negative factors, British Columbia kept booming with 15-20% during the last year. Its largest city Vancouver shows no sign of slowing down. Incomes needed for serving the housing debts are approaching 70% of pre-tax household incomes. The real estate market instead of crashing is still booming. This enigma can only partly be explained with large down payments made in cash. Property speculation can also only partly explain this phenomenon. One day when the market starts falling, and this will inevitably happen sooner rather than later, we'll learn the exact cause for this strange behavior. Until then we can only fasten our seatbelts.
Atlantic provinces: A boom that wasn'tThe smallest and poorest Atlantic Provinces show moderate activity in terms of real estate appreciation. Even these modest gains however, given the weak economic base, lead to erosion of housing affordability, although it's still much better than in any other part of the country. There was no real estate boom in the past, and we expect there won't be any at anytime soon. The local population is aging; many young people are moving to Alberta; international migrants aren't particularly interested in these provinces; and last but not least, any Quebec secession may lead to cutting these territories away from Canada's core lands.
Affordability index for detached bungalows: Canada national average: 38.8% (1st quarter 2006, down 1.7% from 4th quarter 2005) Canadian provinces: --------------------
See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Canada.
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