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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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18 July 2008

Canada: Will it hold or not?

© 2008, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Recent news closely linked to the overall situation and general management of the Canadian real estate market lead to the question of its endurance and vitality. The federal government has decided to tighten the mortgage lending rules, thus putting some private companies before difficult dilemmas. The oil market remains highly unpredictable; this market acts as brake and boost to different regional markets within Canada. The global market slump is still a foreign media event, but more and more people are asking whether it may become also a domestic problem in not so distant future.

In Ottawa people think that the housing market collapse in the United States is due, at least partly, to the easy credit. That's why the Canadian federal government has decided to tighten the mortgage lending rules. Beginning October 15, 2008, the government will back mortgages limited to 35-year amortization periods, and require at least a 5 percent down payment. Thus far, the government was ready to back 40-year mortgages and zero-down payment loans.

Private companies face an uneasy dilemma. Companies such as AIG United Guaranty and PMI Canada are reviewing the rules to see whether they can still offer 40-year loans, which account for more than a third of all new mortgages in Canada. Traditionally, home loans in Canada were for 25 years or less, and some banks last week, such as ING Direct, Bank of Montreal, Toronto-Dominion Bank, dropped the longer mortgages. Mortgage loans longer than 25 years represent only 9 percent of the market, but accounted for about 37 percent of all new mortgages in 2006 and 2007.

In the meantime, the key oil market continues to surprise; after months of relentless growth, we see what may turn out to be the first signs of exhaustion; at levels like these, few are ready to make business, and therefore, the demand may finally start to turn down. The oil market is key for understanding economic dynamism of Canada, as well as its geographical specificities. Oil rich provinces, such as Alberta, are profiting from the oil boom; the oil scarce but final industries' rich Ontario and Quebec will profit only from significant reductions on the pump. Canada, unlike the United States, may be a country of income redistribution between the provinces, but its effects have limits. In the current context, the international oil prices will be the main factor behind the market growth or slump in different provinces.

Another factor is the public awareness of what's happening or rather the perception of events. What may finally decide the direction of the market is the perception of its direction leading to changing behavior among the sellers and buyers. The dominant mood right now is that of incoming market correction downward. Signs of such corrections here and there are considered as proofs of its accuracy, which in turn may produce a self-fulfilling prophecy, a situation when certain expectations shared by large number of people lead to certain market development.

Canada profile:

  • Area: 9,984,670 sq km
  • Population: 33.2 million (July 2008 est.)
  • Population growth rate: 0.83% (2008 est.)
  • Life expectancy at birth: 81.16 years (2008 est.)
  • Total fertility rate: 1.57 children born/woman (2008 est.)
  • GDP (real growth rate): 2.7% (2007 est.)
  • GDP per capita (PPP): $38,400 (2007 est.)
  • Main trading partners: the United States, China, Mexico, United Kingdom, and Japan.
  • Internet users: 22 million (2008)
(Source: CIA World Factbook 2008, Reuters)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Canada.

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