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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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12 July 2005

Bulgaria: Less stable than days before

© 2005, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Bulgaria, a small Balkan country with a population of less than 8 million, hoping to join the European Union by 2007, undergoes difficult times. Economically, politically and internationally alike it's less stable now than just days ago. The real estate market after some phenomenal growth since 2002 has reached a point of stagnation and a possible price retreat is likely. The recent parliament election will most likely replace the past liberal coalition with a large conglomerate of ideologically different parties with leaders that have little in common except their own ego. Internationally it's less likely to join the European Union by 2007 after some EU countries have called for postponement of the next enlargement.

Bulgaria is a small country with industry and services oriented largely toward export with no energy sector big enough to make it relatively independent from the international price fluctuations. Any sudden economic downturn involving its main markets can cause economic depression or at least to slow down the economy. The current period isn't the best time for countries like Germany and Italy where the Bulgarian producers are mainly oriented. The real estate market has experienced phenomenal growth from its low comparatively very levels since 2002 but the expectations that the prices may reach some average European levels should be considered as unrealistic. Except for some prime locations in the major cities and along the Black Sea coastline the prices for weeks and even months are either stable or going down.

The recent parliament election was really a bad news for the political stability in the country. The old liberal coalition most likely will be replaced by a large conglomerate of parties with different ideological background and leaders known to have had bad relations in the past. One possible collation may include former communists, liberals and Turkish ethnic party. Another possible coalition, which is much less likely, may replace the communists that have the largest parliament group with many smaller conservative parties. Any other possible coalition is only theoretical. No matter who forms the new government the ruling coalition will hardly survive its full 4-year mandate. When a political stability is needed most Bulgaria will offer political fragmentation and lack of efficiency. Not a good sign to the world will be that 10% of the MPs will share extreme nationalist ideology.

The future of the country depends very much on its EU membership. It was expected to occur by 2007 and there are still reasons to hope that this deadline may be respected. The recent anti-European attitudes in some key European countries may create serious obstacles and delay the membership by at least one year. But that will be only part of a larger international problem that will face the country. The European funds that are expected to revive the local economy may never materialize in the amounts expected even if the country is allowed to join the EU by 2007. The relative political instability that is looming on the horizon will sell more difficult the Bulgarian card in Europe. Economically, politically and internationally alike Bulgaria is less stable today than it was just days before.

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Bulgaria.

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