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Archived Articles
Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.
He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.
In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.
Global Real Estate Project
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Bulgaria Comes Out of the Gray Zone
Year and a half ago we predicted that the real estate market in Bulgaria might stay at the bottom for a long time without some major investments' flows pouring from abroad. Unfortunately these flows weren't around the corner given the low capital returns. We predicted that only a major push on the international front of diplomacy could change the bets and that this could be some big positive news either on the NATO or on the EU membership talks. Then we stated: "With or without Bulgaria as a member, NATO will remain the same organization, but inside or outside NATO Bulgaria won't be the same country". The first thing that could change when Bulgaria enters NATO, and this is expected to occur in May 2004, is the country's image, the perception many westerners have on this nation. The perception of Bulgaria as a "16th Soviet Republic" will go forever, replaced with an image of the nation as "26th NATO member state". The membership talks with the European Union are also an-and-off on track, which means that the country could aspire to enter the elite club in 2008 at the latest. Given these two major developments, the investors, domestic and foreign, big and small, had to put on time their clocks. In the case of Bulgaria that refers to estimate again the real value of the properties at least in some areas that could be of major interest for the future investors. So far the prices in Sofia were standing at 30-50% of the price levels established in the capitals in Central Europe (Warsaw, Prague, Budapest). Such situation was more or less bearable when Bulgaria was still long distances away from NATO and EU. Now when it enters the final circles it becomes intolerable. There are more factors that push up the prices in Bulgaria. One of them is the money flow sent by the Bulgarian immigration communities, estimated at several hundreds of millions per year. Another reason is the relative liberalization of the credit system. Right now the interests in Bulgaria are much higher than in EU. It's expected that some decrease of the mortgage loans interests will push up further the residential market. So far the prices go up in some restricted areas such as Sofia, Black Sea coast, city of Plovdiv and along some major roads. The rest of the country seems deep in the sleeping mood. Before the first class areas reach some relatively high price levels, it isn't serious to expect that the rest of the country follow the bullish approach. It's also far from reality to expect that Sofia could match any time soon the prices in Warsaw or Budapest. But it's far more realistic to expect some 50% property evaluation in Sofia and in the coastal areas before Bulgaria enters EU.
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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Bulgaria.
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