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Simeon Mitropolitski

Simeon Mitropolitski is a Canadian analyst, of Bulgarian origin, and a former syndicated columnist with the Bulgarian News Agency (BTA). He is the author of several hundred articles dealing with hot political and economic topics, both national and international.

He was part of the first group of Bulgarian intellectuals and students that began the opposition movement that finally put an end to the communist regime in this country in 1989, and in 1996-1997 participated in international observation teams during the elections in several Balkan countries - Romania, Albania and Bulgaria.

In 2002 Simeon and his family moved from Bulgaria to Canada where they live now in Montreal, province of Quebec. Simeon is a Master of Political Science from McGill University and a B.A. of Political Science and History.

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3 May 2008

Bolivia: A zone of turbulence

© 2008, IRED.Com, Inc., Simeon Mitropolitski

Bolivia will nationalize four energy companies, one upon an agreement with its current owners, and other three through state decrees. The announcement came exactly two years after the president Evo Morales, elected mainly by the votes of the Amerindian majority, launched a nationalization program of Bolivia's energy industry. Bolivia has South America's second-largest natural gas reserves after Venezuela, and supplies neighboring Argentina and Brazil. There isn't doubt that the high international oil and gas prices constitute a significant part of the nationalization zeal. On the other hand, however, the relatively richer descendants of the European migrants, living in the country's lowlands, are launching a campaign for more regional autonomy. The big oil and gas, once becoming public property, will eventually go to those who are politically stronger. The country, therefore, becomes a zone of turbulence.

Evo Morales is thus far the closest follower of the Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, in terms of political and economic agenda. It's a mixture of socialism, nationalism, 'tribalism', and anti-imperialism. In practical terms, this means that those who make money in the country should put their interests subordinated to the national interests, the latter being defined by the numerical majority, in the case of Bolivia defined by the ethnic ancestry, and territorially concentrated in the mountains. This fact, actually, may turn to be the biggest political mistake of Morales. In a country where his main constituency lives in remote mountain areas, his reliance on this ethnic majority instead of a large social coalition, may lead to a sudden change of fortunes, a fact that's already coming out.

The forces opposed to Morales are already establishing their own version of a large social coalition, based on the oil rich region of Santa Cruz. It's obviously a big irony that the huge white landowners are making large concessions to some of their much poorer countrymen, including to those of Amerindian ancestry, living in the lowlands, in exchange of political support aiming larger territorial autonomy. In the incoming regional referendum in Santa Cruz, where nobody doubts that the opposition will win big, the main question is to retain large portion of the incomes coming from the energy exploration and export. The big oil and gas, once becoming public property, will eventually go to those who are politically stronger.

So, the forecasts for Bolivia, a poor country that has suffered so much from its former oligarchy, aren't rosy. Instead of building a large social coalition for progress, the current president Morales has tried to replace one oligarchy with another, based on politics and ethnicity. The former oligarchy, however, seems flexible enough to concede parts of its wealth in exchange for political power within some energy rich regions. The irony is that this new coalition will transcend the ethnic and social boundaries, something that Morales was originally promising to do.

Country profile:
  • Area: 1,098,580 sq.km
  • Population: 9.25 million (July 2008 est.)
  • Population growth rate: 1.38% (2008 est.)
  • Net migration rate: -1.14 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2008 est.)
  • Life expectancy at birth: 66.53 years
  • Ethnic groups:
    • Quechua 30%
    • Mestizo (mixed white and Amerindian ancestry) 30%
    • Aymara 25%
    • White 15%.
  • Official languages: Spanish, Quechua, and Aymara.
  • GDP per capita: purchasing power parity $4,400 (2007 est.)
  • Population below poverty line: 60% (2006 est.)
  • Main trade partners: Brazil, Argentina, the United States, and Chile.
(Sources: CIA World Factbook 2008; Reuters)

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See also the directory of companies providing real estate services in, and general real estate information of Bolivia.

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